Q3 2026 Report

- Retail interest in crypto has collapsed. This kind of maximum disinterest is usually where risk and reward quietly invert. - Crypto is five years into a long grind under its old highs, the same brutal sideways churn that Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Apple and Berkshire all survived before their next leg. The difference this time is that the boredom is masking real improving fundamentals. - Six core value drivers are taking shape at once: regulation, stablecoins, tokenisation, AI agents, the DeFi mullet and token rights, turning crypto from an ideological trade into productivity technology for financial services. - Bitcoin is deep in the value zone, trading below its cost of production at levels that have historically offered exceptional risk to reward over a 12 to 18 month horizon. We are in the time pain phase, the final stretch of a bear market where everyone becomes convinced it is going to zero, sellers exhaust themselves, and the bull market can eventually resume. The selling now is fear-driven, concentrated in those who bought the $70k to $80k bounce. The long-term holders and the buyers above $100k are no longer the core selling pressure. - Ethereum is the same story. Deep in the value range and offering compelling risk to reward on the same 12 to 18 month view. The concerns around the Ethereum Foundation have been largely resolved by the launch of EthLabs and Ethereum Institutional. - Crypto businesses are the most revenue-efficient organisations in the world, and the market has not priced this yet. The innovation coming from the intersection of AI and crypto is extraordinary. Anyone can now build financial products (see lala.money) on a global permissionless network, and the scale of what that unlocks is enormous. - The oldest criticism of crypto, that no value reaches the holder, is finally resolved. We have solved token rights, Hyperliquid has lit the flame for what it means to reward token holders, and Bitcoin dominance is rolling over. For everything outside Bitcoin, the timing may be the best it has ever been. Yet the market still prices the meme coin and the cash-flow machines the same. - We cover our current tactical positions and a watchlist organised into five ideas: assets most likely to respond to a return of activity, cheap value plays with solid businesses, turnaround stories, the AI narrative spillover, and special situations. - We close on how the lessons from crypto's own hype cycle translate to what is now unfolding in AI.