Q2 2026 Outlook
Q2 2026 Outlook covers the big picture, bitcoin onchain data, ethereum onchain data and the five forces transforming the industry from cyclical growth to secular growth.
1. We are in a post "dot-crypto" era with the deployment phase of blockchain technology ahead of us. 2. The macro backdrop is more similar to post-WW2 than the 1970s, and I expect excessive money printing as the base case. 3. BTC and ETH are trading at historical extremes offering compelling risk-to-reward opportunities over a forward-looking time horizon of 12–18 months. 18-month median forward-looking returns for a < 20 reading on the Mean Reversion index: BTC (216%) and ETH (168%). 4. ETH's core value driver models suggest a fair value price of $5.8k. 5. Ethereum's ecosystem growth is impressive but remains cyclical. 6. Five factors: regulation, high quality liquid assets, the DeFi mullet, AI agents and token rights, are converging to transform Ethereum's cyclical growth to secular growth. 7. Forward-looking clarity comes from understanding what has changed and what hasn't changed.
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